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Paying for Coffee Down Under

Coffee addicts, it seems, fret about the price and underlying forces driving those prices no matter where they call home.

ABC News in Australia yesterday posted a piece about the factors that go into a cup of coffee.  Notably (and, perhaps, obviously) the article points out that the beans account for only a fraction of the ultimate price of the beverage.  A much greater portion of the price goes toward things such as rent.

Applied locally, this would seem to indicate that a cup of joe will cost significantly more in New York than Austin. Well, maybe not Austin – the city’s changing. But you get the idea.

End of Kenyan Coffee?

All right – here’s another one about coffee because why not?

The Economist this week featured an article about reported dysfunction in Kenya’s coffee industry.  According to the article, despite the quality of Kenya’s coffee (well-regarded Arabica beans – a deserved reputation – trust me, I’ve had much), dedicated land for coffee is diminishing, and farmers are turning to other crops.

As reasons for this pullback in growth and distribution, The Economist cites over regulation (driving up costs) and a corrupt, monopolistic market through which beans must pass from farmer to consumer (suppressing prices) as other, major factors disincentivizing coffee production.

The full article may be read here.

End of the Addiction?

This morning I paid $2.50 for a shot of espresso ($2.71 after tax, $3.71 after tax and tip – I’m a regular, what can I say?) at Cenote, my local coffee shop. Apparently, I may be paying quite a bit more pretty soon.

According to an article today from The Street, coffee is about to take a big hit right at the start of the supply chain – the growers.  Vietnam, which is number one in the world for coffee production (Wikipedia says #2 behind Brazil – but figures date from 2009), is getting hit by prolonged drought.

According to The Street, a knock on the price of robusta beans from Vietnam normally would be mitigated by ample supply of the higher quality Arabica beans from Central and South America.  However, a multi-year case of fungus affecting the Latin American Arabica beans is snatching away that cushion. The result is higher commodity prices.

Read the rest of the article here.

 

We’re Doing Great! Send Help – Quick!

This morning the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced the award of the 2015 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science to Princeton University economist Angus Deaton.  In describing his work, The New York Times reports on a tension that Deaton sees in the history of economics – that we are at a time of almost unprecedented prosperity or good fortune, and yet, threats which could demolish those successes are right around the corner – e.g.: climate change and inequality.  Slate also noted Deaton’s work and writings on inequality, particularly his observation that unequal outcomes could necessarily mean unequal opportunity in the first instance.

The Upshot column in The New York Times delves further into Deaton’s work, notably his emphasis on empiricism, yet cautions that the Nobel laureate has never advocated that data replace theory – rather, they work together to craft solutions to economic problems, specifically those related to development.  A worthwhile and accessible read.

Volkswagen – Emissions and Taxes

By now, you’ve doubtless heard that Volkswagen installed software in its diesel cars that was designed to defeat American emissions tests.  For car owners, environmentalists, governments, autoworkers, and countless others, the scandal has reverberated throughout the world.  Civil suits are piling up, criminal inquiries have opened – even Texas has gotten in on the game.

Transportation regulators, consumer regulators, environmental regulators – all seem to have jurisdiction.  Add one more arena where the embattled German automaker will face scrutiny – taxes.

The U.S. Senate Finance Committee, led by Chairman, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R- Utah) and Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), sent a letter Tuesday to Volkswagen Volkswagen AG and Volkswagen Group of America, inquiring about tax violations committed by the automaker and its divisions as it installed the pernicious software.

Taxes?  But it’s a tech problem, an environmental problem, a public health problem.  Yep.  It’s all of those things.  And because the United States – in its frontier, self-reliant mentality – rather than actually pay for various programs outright, incentivizes various behaviors by running refunds and credits through our tax code.  Purchasing cars that are “green” or better for the environment (e.g.: clean diesel Volkswagens) is one such incentivized behavior – and there is a reward for it.  According to the committee:

“Created by Congress in 2005, the Alternative Motor Vehicle Tax Credit included an advanced lean-burn technology motor vehicle credit, which was available to purchasers of new, qualifying vehicles.  Volkswagen certified to the IRS that several of its 2009 and 2010 models qualified for the $1,300 per vehicle credit, and sales figures suggest that over $50 million in tax subsidies went to purchasers of these vehicles.”

Oh.

Volkswagen started making certifications for the credit in 2008; purchasers who claimed the credit were relying on Volkswagen’s representation that their cars were green and met certain standards.  Except, in fact, they didn’t.

No word yet on who will be writing that restitution check to the IRS.

Das Fraud Two

 

We’re Here, Even If Tax Revenues Aren’t

In various European countries, August is not a month to work but to go on holiday. In that spirit, we also took a holiday in August. And September.  And nearly October, but we’re about ready to emerge from tax season and get back to the business.

Two articles caught our attention today.  The first concerns corporate taxes.  Reuters is reporting on a study that estimates just how much American companies use offshore accounts and other vehicles to mitigate tax bills.  Details aside, the big takeaway is probably this:

“The 500 largest American companies hold more than $2.1 trillion in accumulated profits offshore to avoid U.S. taxes and would collectively owe an estimated $620 billion in U.S. taxes if they repatriated the funds, according to a study released on Tuesday.”

If you happen to be one of those companies, or a major shareholder, and you do repatriate that income, and your holdings take a hit, remember you can effect some savings to your bottom line by selecting where you live.  Not all states are equal in getting bang for your buck, and this map sets that out.  State where $100 buys you the least – Hawaii at $85.32. But you do get to live in Hawaii.  State where $100 buys you the most – Mississippi at $115.74.  But you have to live in Mississippi.

 

 

New Jersey and Texas Go to the Movies – Perfect Together

New Jersey just let tax breaks for film and television producers take the ol’ dirt nap.  According to an article Sunday, the New Jersey state senate had approved $50 million in incentives for film production sometime last year, but the measure never made it out of committee in the state assembly.

The article cites differing views on the effect of incentives.  Some say that all the production jobs left New Jersey; others see no difference.  This leads to two questions – three, really, but more on that in a minute: do incentives have any effect on film production? Does New Jersey need to offer film incentives?  And third – what about Texas?

As to the second question, New Jersey is kind of a unique case, so analyzing the credits in New Jersey would be relying on hopelessly flawed parameters.  First, it’s New Jersey.  Who wouldn’t want to be there?  You have a parkway, AND a turnpike.

nj-parkway-thumb & turnpike

I mean – c’mon.  Look at that.

Second, it’s right next to New York City (and, yes, sigh, Philadelphia) which makes it perfect for stories that take place in the tri-state area. It’s even perfect for stories that take place in New York or Philadelphia, since it can stand in for both, and the real estate’s cheaper in the Garden State.

According to the article, New Jersey had an annual program in place:

“New Jersey’s former film incentives offered a 20 percent tax credit on production expenses, but were capped at $10 million annually—limiting the total funding available to producers each year. That effectively ended the state’s incentive program long before it officially ended on July 1. The program ran out of money months before July.”

That program is now sleeping with the fishes.

Sleeping with Fishes

As to the first, there is no consensus on the efficacy of such state-run programs; indeed, it can’t really be said that there is consensus as to the purpose of such programs – e.g.: do they create jobs?  Boost tourism?  Serve some other purpose?

The Tax Foundation, an arguably right-leaning tax think tank is of the opinion that tax film credits don’t deliver as promised, and are a waste of taxpayer resources.

A May 2015 article in Huffington Post shows contrasting views. The article notes that while several states are shutting down the credit, other states – such as Maryland and Pennsylvania – are passing laws to offer or renew the credits.

But the Huffington Post article also cites Robert Tannenwald, a former economist at the Federal Reserve of Boston and author of a study on the credits for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities who concludes that “you spend an awful lot for every job you create for residents of a state.”

“Film tax credits don’t pay for themselves, so states have to raise taxes or cut expenditures (to make up the difference), Tannenwald said. “Those snuff out jobs as fast as film tax credits create them.”

An August 2014 article in the Los Angeles Times shows that a Massachusetts study of its own credit reached a similar conclusion:

“The Massachusetts Department of Revenue estimated that for every dollar of film tax credits awarded, the state got back only 13 cents in revenue from 2006 to 2011. The net cost to the state was $128,575 for every film job created for a Massachusetts resident.”

The Los Angeles Times points to the effect of the credits – shifting jobs from one place to another, say California to New York – but nothing in the article – save quotes from the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), an industry lobby – does anything to counter any of the studies by any of the states, or outside analysis, such as that by Tannenwald.

And what about Texas?

The Los Angeles Times piece ranks the top ten credit offerings by state, and Texas doesn’t even crack that list. New York is tops, with Florida coming in at ten. And that was before this last legislative session in Austin. Since 2008, Texas has had the Texas Moving Image Industry Incentive Program (MIIIP) which is broken down in detail here.

During this last session, however, the Texas Legislature passed a budget allocating only $32 million in tax credits for film and like media under the MIIIP, which was, according to the Austin Chronicle, less than the $70 million requested by the governor, and far less than the $95 million available and passed the prior session.

So, for the time being, for any number of reasons, the Texas film tax credit is slashed, and it will be another two years or so until the issue is considered again.

And while the Jersey film tax credit is in even more dire shape, consider what New Jersey can offer the world of cinema with the offering below:

New Jersey and Texas. Movies and tax credits. Laurel and Hardy. Perfect together.

Research Tax Credit (Dead Again?)

(TL:DR à The research and experimentation tax credit is a cost-efficient way of stimulating research and development by the private sector for the public good, and Congress let it expire. Again).

Congress is toying with renewing the Research and Experimentation Tax Credit. Again.  It’s not even really news.  The credit expired at midnight, January 1, 2015 because Congress couldn’t agree to renew a temporary tax credit that’s been renewed so often before that it’s practically permanent.  It’s so permanent a temporary tax credit that they teach it in a basic business tax class in law school.  Once you reach syllabus status, after all, you’re kind of a legend.

The temporary tax credit is so permanent that it’s expired eight times and been renewed back into uncertain, immortal life 16 times. It’s like that guy from Game of Thrones that…nevermind.  For intents and purposes, it’s basically here to stay.  If precedent is any indicator, it will be breathed back into life before the end of this year with its provisions to apply retroactively, so as not to shut out any businesses that had planned to take advantage of it this year.

Well, if it’s so great, why do they keep letting it expire?  I think you mispronounced “why do they keep renewing it?”  Some would argue that the credit expires only to be renewed based on principled arguments.  Seasoned watchers of Washington would argue something a trifle more cynical – think found cottage industry.

Could the credit be dead again?

dead-again-2-300x170

(Sorry. Couldn’t resist).

Regardless, the credit was born in 1981 as part of an economic stimulus package designed to aid flagging American manufacturing, specifically, the auto industry.  Apparently, at the time, no one paused to consider that American cars kind of sucked.

Anyway, over the last 34 years, the tax credit has expired, been revived, and seen changes, but fundamentally, the credit has always aimed to stimulate American innovation by incentivizing the private sector to make investments that it might otherwise eschew for reasons of cost or lost profits.  The credit purports to mitigate or eliminate the gap between research dollars invested by private businesses (presumably larger) and actual dollars returned through selling the fruits of that R&D (presumably smaller, at first) in the hopes that some otherwise impossible or unavailable good will inure to that business or to the public at large – whether directly or indirectly.  Cited results are increased innovation and first-mover advantages, job growth, and higher productivity levels in addition to the less easily quantified multiplier effects that redound to area economies.

How does the credit work?

To qualify for the credit, research must be “qualified research,” and to be that, it must pass a four-part test. The four parts of the test are (1) permitted purpose; (2) elimination of uncertainty; (3) process of experimentation; and (4) technological in nature.  Moreover, the research at issue must not fall under one of the exclusions designed to prevent ordinary business expenses (that are otherwise deductible) from being characterized as qualified research and qualifying for the potentially more lucrative R&D credit.

This does not mean that the costs of research cannot be deducted. In fact, they can.  However, a business that wishes to claim the credit and the deduction must make an election and offset one with the other – essentially, no double counting.  Eligible expenses of qualified research can include wages, supplies, and contract research expenses.

In fact, according to the Tax Policy Center, in 2012, contract research accounted for 16% of the claimed credit, the cost of supplies 15%, and wages amounted to fully 69% of the claimed credit.

How is it calculated?

A taxpayer who meets the requirements of the four-part test can calculate the credit under one of three methods, each of which is designed to reward the taxpayer for increases in R&D spending over previous periods.  Under the first method, the firm will receive a credit of 20% of its qualified research expenses over a base amount with the base amount defined as a ratio of its research expenses to gross receipts for the years 1984 to 1988 (with the ratio capped at 16%); for firms begun after 1988, the ratio was set at 3%.

Under the second method, a taxpayer can receive a credit equal to 14% of qualified research expenses over 50% of the average of qualified research expenses for the three immediately preceding taxable years.  Under the third method, a firm with no prior qualified research expenses can receive a credit of 6% of the qualified research expenses for that taxable year.  After that calculation, the credit (combined with other credits taken by the business) is limited to 25% o the taxpayer’s tax liability that exceeds $25,000.  Any unused credit can be carried back one year or carried forward as long as 20 years.

In all cases, the credit targets increases in research; maximizing the credit’s effect on tax liability requires reducing the base amount or increasing the qualified research expenses.

Does It Work?

Evidence going back to at least 1990s suggests that it does – that the credit has a positive correlation with increased research dollars.

The National Science Foundation published a paper in 2005 stating that during the period from 1990 to 2001, dollars claimed under the credit grew twice as fast as private sector R&D dollars, even as direct federal R&D spending dropped. The report went on to cite growth in annual credit claims from $1.5 billion in the period ending in 1996 to annual claims topping $4 billion every year from 1997 to 2001.  The coincidence with the late 90s tech boom may not be such a coincidence; the NSF paper goes on to note that, in that period ending in 2001, computer and electronic products and software and information accounted for no less than 42% of the claimed credits.

That trend has not abated.

An April 2015 paper by Nirupama Rao, PhD, at the Wharton School’s Public Policy Initiative stated:

“In fiscal year 2012, U.S. firms received R&D tax credits totaling $11.1 billion, or about 8 percent of the estimated $140.9 billion spent by federal agencies on defense and non-defense R&D that year.” (The U.S. Treasury cites $8.3 billion in credits claimed in 2008, consistent with the sharply upward trend since the late 1990s). The continued associate with tech sectors is also apparent with computer and electronic manufacturing part of a group accounting for nearly 80% of credits claimed in 2008.

In the paper, Rao argues that private sector spending on research and development is “highly sensitive” to the credit.

“Short-run elasticity estimates exceed one, meaning that a 10 percent reduction in the cost of R&D leads the average firm to increase its research intensity by more than 10 percent. In other words, when it gets cheaper to spend on qualified R&D, firms actually do spend more, as policymakers hope.”

Rao notes the significant portion of the credit allocable to wages.  Indeed, the Tax Policy Center confirms this data, placing wages at 69% of claimed research credits.

And yet.

There are currently arguments that the credit does not work as well as it did, or as well as it could.  Frequently cited causes are that other countries better implement such a credit or other similar incentives; the failure to make the credit permanent credits too much uncertainty to stimulate companies to gamble on that investment; and the calculations are simply too difficult and unwieldy.

Rao also notes this problem, arguing that “firms do not time their research spending to maximize their R&D tax credits. This perhaps reflects uncertainty about the continued existence of the credit.”

This is a real problem as companies that would use the credit to make long-term investments or capital outlays on research and development must pause and consider risk.  The risk to them is that they could make the investments based on the availability of the credit, but should the credit be discontinued, they would blow their budgets out of the water.

The complexity of the credit calculation carries the risk of underreporting and underpaying should the IRS disallow any or all of a firm’s claim (not to mention leaving money on the table by electing an unfavorable base amount). Combined with the interest and penalties that would accompany the additional assessed liability, and the disincentives grow in magnitude.

As to the first issue, Rao believes that smaller and younger firms are more responsive to a temporary credit, yet this should be cold comfort for the credit’s advocates as more than 80% of the credits claimed go to firms with receipts greater than $250 million.

In advocating for making the credit permanent, a 2012 paper by the Brookings Institution argued that a permanent credit would produce “$66 billion increase in annual GDP, at least 162,000 new jobs, and an additional 3,850 patents issued to American inventors.”

Whither Credit?

Much of the conversation around the credit views it as a net positive, albeit not a perfect remedy. It is a creature of federal government, yet it leaves the decisions about which research to attempt and how much of it to attempt to the private sector.  Its renewal seems likely given its fairly long history and its seeming contribution to tech research and the dividends that spending yields.  Yet, given the current political climate, its renewal is not certain, and any revision – no matter how necessary it may be deemed by wise counselors – seems unlikely for the foreseeable future, particularly when its very existence is the only issue up for debate.

 

 

 

More Analysis of the Clinton Carried Interest Plan

How to tax the kings among men.  That seems to be recurring and resonant theme lately.  Over the last two weeks, we’ve brought you news of Hillary Clinton’s plan to tax fund managers that – on its face – seems more equitable or redistributive of wealth, as well as a new IRS rule to do precisely that by closing – or seriously narrowing – the carried interest loophole.

Writing Thursday in the Dealbook section of The New York TimesUniversity of San Diego law professor Victor Fleischer says bunk to all that.

Fleischer doesn’t argue against the ostensible aim of such proposals; rather, he questions their substance: principally, that they won’t accomplish their stated goals, and also that their stated goals aren’t the real problems.

Fleischer’s most withering criticism is that while Clinton purported to target “hit and run” investors, the details of her plan don’t target that population.  Moreover, while the plan will generate revenue, it will not change the behavior of fund managers or their general strategies.

 

401k Basis

I know.  Could these titles be any more creative?

Probably not. Anyway.

So, what about 401k plans?  What’s the basis there?

Well, it’s similar to the situation with IRAs and Roth IRAs – so similar, in fact, that 401(k)s can be conveniently separated into two classes: 401(k) plans and Roth 401(k) plans.

A regular 401k is like an IRA in the sense that contributions to the 401k plan are made before taxes are taken.  Taxable income for the year is reduced, and the contribution to the plan grow (hopefully).  When they are withdrawn, they are taxed as ordinary income.  The gain is calculated by the basis – the amounts of the contributions.

Just as an ordinary 401k shares attributes with an ordinary IRA, a Roth 401(k) bears parallels to a Roth IRA. Contributions to the Roth 401(k) are after-tax; as such, when they are withdrawn, they are tax free.

Therefore, basis works about the same for the 401(k) (regular and Roth) plans as it does for IRAs.